The new Labor Code of Ukraine currently remains just a draft, but the discussion around it has already gone far beyond purely legal technique. Additional significance was given to this discussion by the White Paper prepared by the Tony Blair Institute. According to the Ministry of Economy, the document contains an independent analysis of the key provisions of the draft and their potential impact on the labor market, economy, and the system of labor relations. In this context, the White Paper should be perceived not as a source of law, but as analytical material that evaluates how the proposed model of labor regulation meets modern challenges, in particular, reconstruction, de-shadowing of employment, and European integration.

Basic Labor Guarantees

A separate block of conclusions concerns basic labor guarantees. According to data published by the Ministry of Economy, the authors of the White Paper positively evaluate the approach under which the minimum wage in the draft should gradually approach 50% of the average wage in the economy, and also be determined in monthly and hourly dimensions.

In addition, the draft provides for an increase in the minimum annual paid leave from 24 to 28 calendar days.

Here it is important not to confuse the draft and the current law: today the minimum wage is already established simultaneously in monthly and hourly amounts, and the annual basic leave, as a general rule, is not less than 24 calendar days. Thus, the novelty of the draft lies not in the very fact of the hourly and monthly dimension of the minimum wage, but in the new logic of its determination and in raising the leave standard.

Family Policy and Women’s Participation

Significant attention in the analysis is paid to family policy and women’s participation in the labor market. The White Paper positively evaluates the norm on an additional four months of parental leave for each child, of which two months are an individual right of each parent and cannot be transferred.

According to the given estimates, such an approach can yield about 86 thousand people of additional net employment and approximately UAH 7 billion of annual net benefit for the state. From a legal point of view, this shows an attempt to shift the focus from a formal declaration of guarantees to a real combination of work and family responsibilities, which corresponds to the European approach to work-life balance. At the same time, such changes themselves are not yet a current norm, but belong to the predicted effect of the possible adoption of the draft.

Inclusivity and New Groups in the Labor Market

The document also positively evaluated the block of decisions related to inclusivity and the entry of new groups into the labor market. It refers, in particular, to the student employment contract, which is supposed to formalize the combination of study with work and create a more understandable path to the first official employment.

Under a conservative scenario, this could yield about 56 thousand additionally formalized employees and approximately UAH 3.4 billion in tax revenues annually. The White Paper also draws attention to the agreed provisions regarding non-discrimination and support for veterans. In a legal sense, this indicates an intention to form not just a new code, but a framework that covers a broader spectrum of social and labor risks than the current fragmented regulatory system.

Predictability of Rules and Dispute Resolution

Special attention should be given to the conclusion regarding the predictability of rules for employees and businesses. The authors of the analysis emphasize that the draft can replace fragmented regulation with new standards, including the electronic written form, clearer rules regarding the minimum wage and vacations, as well as labor arbitration.

According to the document’s assessment, in the case of widespread use of arbitration, the total annual savings for employees and employers could reach UAH 5.3 billion, and the additional effect for the efficiency of the justice system — about UAH 970 million. This block is important precisely for business, because it shows: it is not only about expanding guarantees, but also about attempting to make labor rules more predictable, and dispute resolution methods — less costly in time and resources.